In a Country With No Kings, Donald Trump Remains the Jester
We might not be at 3.5% yet. But we’re REALLY close.
You’ve probably seen a lot over the past few days about something called the “3.5% Rule,” and how America has taken that rule and smashed it in the most positive way imaginable in light of the No Kings protests.
For those of you unaware, I made a video about this:
But for those of you who want to read, that’s cool too!
The 3.5 rule was devised by a political scientist from Harvard by the name of Erica Chenoweth, who researched a wide variety of civil resistance literature and social movements between the years 1990 and 2006 in an attempt to measure violent protesting against nonviolent protesting. As she describes it, she approached the project with cynicism and made the criteria so overwhelmingly tight for the success of nonviolent protests that India’s independence movement was “not considered as evidence in favour of nonviolent protest in Chenoweth and Stephan’s analysis – since Britain’s dwindling military resources were considered to have been a deciding factor, even if the protests themselves were also a huge influence,” according to the BBC.
What Chenoweth found shocked her: “Overall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests.”
In hindsight, it maybe shouldn’t have been so shocking. Willful peaceful protests are far more likely to attract a wider array of people from all walks of life than more narrow acts of disruption. And that’s not at all a sleight against more disruptive means of protests, as context matters with all levels of discontent. But the numbers don’t lie, and Chenoweth’s conclusion holds true still:
“Once around 3.5% of the whole population has begun to participate actively, success appears to be inevitable.”
So with over 2,100 No Kings protests spread across 50 states (and I do mean 50 states; none of the photos from these rallies are from the same state), how many people do you think showed up to the protests? Was it 3.5% of the population? If you trust the 50501 Subreddit created back in January (which I believe may be unofficial), we definitely did - and may even smash the number.
But realistically, if we believe what the No Kings movement themselves are currently claiming, we came a bit short of that mythical 3.5% and unfortunately hit somewhere between 1.5% and 1.8%...
Which is still nearly six million people who showed up to protests in countless cities in all fifty states - something at least one data analyst suggests is the largest protest in U.S. history. Larger than the George Floyd protests of 2020, larger than the Women’s March of 2017. And that number could get larger since it may take some time to get a closer estimate of the real attendance numbers.
What we’re witnessing in real time is one of the biggest vibe shifts imaginable, folks. Upon witnessing illegal abductions of immigrants, many of whom were never charged for or even committed a crime… upon witnessing riots invented by Donald Trump, who escalated meaningful protests against ICE by sending in the National Guard and Marines… upon witnessing the enactment of Project 2025… upon witnessing ALL OF THIS, all of the last FIVE MONTHS… people were pissed. People who are not used to direct action, people who are not used to marching in the streets, people who have never heard the word “praxis” before… people who might not even have ever been politically active AT ALL went out en masse to harness their rage into something more productive.
But where discussion of the No Kings protests get interesting is when you dive into the No Kings protests, and No Tyrants sister protests, that happened in tandem across the globe. That’s right: it wasn’t just fifty states. It was dozens of countries too.
Like Canada.
Like the UK.
Like Mexico.
Like Costa Rica.
Like Japan, like South Africa, like Belgium, the list keeps going on and on. To the point that there may never actually be a way to accurately track how many people protested ICE and the Trump administration on June 14.
And yet you will likely see bad faith actors, and even well-meaning leftists, who ask what seems like a rational question:
What was the point, and what did we hope to accomplish?
Across all manners of social media, whether it’s Threads, Twitter, Bluesky, Instagram, or TikTok, the single most common criticism of the No Kings protest was a perceived lack of endgame. What are the demands of the people protesting? What are the plans to fix what we are protesting? Isn’t this all a bit PERFORMATIVE?
The best answer I can arrive on is… no. Absolutely not. It’s theater, like everything in politics is, but it’s not performative. I saw this post on Threads from Alicia T. Crosby that really puts it best:
“The thing I’m choosing to glean from the No Kings rallies as a justice worker is that folks wanna do something & are looking for ways to connect to others.
There’s deep discontent and anger that folks are feeling - some for the very 1st time - & that reality means that *some* of us who’ve been at this a while have an opportunity to help people move from poster making to analysis & praxis.
We all have something we can do and I wonder if it’s the season for some of us to be teachers and guides, weavers and circle leaders so that those wanting to assemble can do so with the intent, purpose, direction, education & demands we know can help catalyze communal/social change & personal transformation.”
This is only the beginning: a head count, as they say at the door at punk shows. No Kings is a message being fired into the air to see who’s ready to take the next step, and the next, and the next. It says as much on No Kings’ own website in a section aptly titled “What’s Next.”
“As ICE raids escalate and Trump doubles down on authoritarian tactics—including politicizing the military—we’re meeting the moment with action. The road ahead isn’t just about one protest or one day. It’s about building a movement powerful enough to win against authoritarian forces dead set on destroying our democracy.
We’re inspired by the 3.5% principle: it only takes 3.5% of the population engaging in sustained, strategic protest against authoritarianism to achieve significant political change. Everything we do from here on out is grounded in three core commitments: staying in the fight, taking concrete action today, and investing in the long-term.”
Included below that write-up are lists of actions No Kings participants can do to keep the fight alive, like hosting an “action” on June 26 to directly protest immigration raids, or join any number of activist collectives. They even provide information on how to get involved on a local or state level, though I’d also suggest paying attention to what’s happening in your own municipality because City Hall is a great place to meet the faces striking change in your community.
One thing we need to remember about the 3.5% rule is that we aren’t going to solve all of our issues with one protest. If the official numbers come out, and 11 million or more people protested in the U.S. on June 14, that’s not going to magically solve our problems overnight.
The 3.5% rule is about keeping it up - sustaining the energy until it can’t be ignored and it gets bigger and bigger. And something tells me that when Donald Trump is posting things like this, where he’s now threatening to ramp up ICE presence in major cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, we’re gonna have all the motive we need to keep this going for a long time.
Folks, the road ahead is long, dark, and twisted, but seeing the sheer scope of the allies we have, even if we don’t all agree, should remind us that it’s not going to be this way forever, and it is going to get better. When you combine the turnout of the protests with the fact that Trump has already lost in court 91 times and counting, you’ll find that this is more than just a vaguely defined “Resistance” this time.
It’s a war, and Trump is losing.
Hey Dust Bunnies, one more thing...
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Alt National Park Service wrote this on FB today:
We’re honored to announce a final count of 13.14 million in attendance across 2,300+ No Kings protests nationwide. It took a little longer to finalize due to the sheer scale, but the turnout was historic!
So far, 71 MAGA agitators have been arrested, with 62 additional investigations still underway. We’re actively reviewing online threats and working on escalating where needed. If you see something, say something.